\ https://www.cmmedia.com.tw/home/articles/5626\ 買公司不成買人才！紫光挖角聯電前執行長孫世偉\ https://www.cmmedia.com.tw/home/articles/2192\ 川普否決萊迪思收購案彰顯美中關係面臨考驗\ https://www.cmmedia.com.tw/home/articles/5642\

g reunion that will be held in Taipei, Taiwan on Saturday July 22nd - Join us! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Be_3KOMhHio\ \ The singers are the Chinese Money & You Instructors, including Willson Lin 林偉賢 and Robert Kuo, our partners from http://www.Doers.cn - Jason Zeck Lee - THANK YOU!\ \ Title: From Now On \ Lyrics: 郭騰尹\ Music: 江亦帆\ \ So many words to say, yet I don’t know where to start\ So many things I want to do, but people keep discouraging me, telling me to give up\ ‘Till I came here, the dark cloud in my heart dispersed\ Your stories are imprinted in my heart\ And I have realized what I have neglected in life\ \ From now on, I have decided to evolve...\ No longer running away... due to the awakening of Love and Responsibilities\ From now on, together my dream and I\ No more hesitation to leave behind great memories of life\ \ So many words to say, yet I don’t know where to start\ So many things I want to do but, people keep discouraging me, telling me to give up\ ‘Till I came here, the dark cloud in my heart dispersed\ Your stories are imprinted in my heart\ And I realized, what I have neglected in life\ \ From now on, I have decided to evolve...\ No longer running away... due to the awakening of Love and Responsibilities\ From now on, together my dream and I \ No more hesitation to leave behind great memories of life\ \ Life is like a play and this is a something to be cautious of\ There are rainy days in life but if you have the courage, there will be miracles\ From now on I have decided to embrace the truth\ No longer skeptical, but immersing into the embrace of the Ocean\ From now on, I have decided I will frequently return\ As my sisters and brothers are here\ You and I are here.\ \ Team, don't you just love it! Thank YOU for all you do / your love & support! Bobbi DePorter Wendy Tan Terence Tan Jacy Wee Michelle Yong Crystal Lim Ya Hui John Butler Cindy Lee Ryll Burgin-Doyle Craig Doyle Nicola Smith-Jackson Robert Jackson Kerry Zurier Dominique Lyone Andrew Barron Adelene Bek Douglas Stevenson Ng Genly Liang Sean Ricardo YiMing Prem Kaur Kitti Chang Alvin Wee Johnny Moreno Randolph Craft Cherie Clark Serge Gravelle Dwain Jeworski Tameka Vazquez Sabariah Jusoh Murshidah Said Kham Rich Piseth Ken Rich Malay Aristor Supardy Nazril Nash Idrus Yew Keat Lim Marzuki Mohammed Wan Adli Wan Hassan Rizal Shah Syireen Rose Hanif AzmiJean DeTraversay Reggie Hailey Eric J Mowrey Carol Dysart Vijaya Saraswathy Jane Jordan Stan Jordan Liana Di Stefano James Caldwell Diane McCann Jacqueline Seow Tamami Ushiki Jason WL Tan\ \ There are many more of you but FB has a limit of 50 links! You know who you are :-) \ \ #moneyandyou #excellerated #dccordova #wealth #accesstocash #globalbusinessschoolretreat #doers\

30~16:30\ 報價與議價之談判技巧\ http://www.careernet.org.tw/n/Class-10448.html\

第三季升息，認為第四季有機會升息的只有2位。台灣的指標重貼現率要較目前走高，預料要等到明年第二季，有近七成受訪者估屆時利率在1.5％以上。\ \ 央行升息難，有望為公債築起堡壘，有別於去年末收益率大彈的夢魘，今年獲利有機會落袋為安。調查顯示，下半年不論長短券，交投氣氛都以中性為主，即使第四季預估偏空人數略有增加，也都低於三成，一反此前調查對下半年債市明顯轉熊的看法。\ \ 「台灣經濟狀況在下半年快速好轉的機率幾乎是零，」華南永昌證券債市交易員Sam Chang表示，央行不會升息已是市場共識，第三季盤勢中性偏多很自然，不過第四季通常提前反應來年預期，有可能轉為觀望。\ \ 台灣央行在6月將今年的通脹展望下修至1.07％，配合官方溫和的經濟增長預估（年增率2.05％），加息腳步似乎愈走愈遠。反應在交易員對公債收益率的預估上，指標10年期公債第三季區間落在0.95％-1.15％，幾乎和第二季的0.98％-1.16％相同。\ \ 不但第三季盤勢走法變化不大，交易員預估第四季10年債區間相比第三季也不過上移約5基點。受升息影響最钜的5年短券，同樣陷入利率曲線動彈不得的窘境。調查指出5年券收益率下半年將落在0.68％-0.85％，也與第二季的0.70％-0.84％幾無差別。\ \ 當前水位 第三季區間 季底位置 第四季區間 年底位置\ 5年公債 0.795％ 0.68％-0.80％ 0.75％ 0.70％-0.85％ 0.80％\ 10年公債 1.102％ 0.95％-1.15％ 1.05％ 1.00％-1.20％ 1.10％\ 此外，逾55％的受訪者認為下半年央行將保持寬鬆的公開市場操作，其餘則認為維持中性，無人認為趨緊；能嗅出央行意向的隔夜拆款利率，參與者也幾乎一致認為下半年央行將維持在0.16％-0.20％的當前水準，僅有1位認為有機會高於0.20％。\ \ 群益金鼎證券交易員Baker Tu指出，雖然交易員預期債市不會很快轉空，但收益率下檔空間十分有限，交易商又不得不持有部位，這種「彈不動、追不低」的盤勢，就是「無奈盤」。\ \ 相較債市交易員的溫和預期，彭博在6月稍早訪問經濟分析師的調查顯示他們的立場更加鴿派，認為台灣央行將維持利率不變一段更長時間，直到2018年第三季才會升息。\ \ 支撐台債中性徘徊的假設奠基在全球經濟增長和緩，通脹持續溫和。然而在調查影響下半年債市的重要因素中，交易員將美國升息快慢及縮表前景列為最重要的因素，這意味著，如果美國升息及縮表腳步快於預期，將造成債市的變數。\ \ 問卷調查期間，歐洲及美國債券收益率尚未明顯偏升，近幾個交易日則快速走高。永豐金證券交易員Ivor Su提醒，歐洲通脹看起來還不錯，目前影響美債偏空表現，讓台債短線陷入疲軟，然而台債買盤其實沒有完全退散，穩定力量還在，可以觀察美、歐債是否只是短線干擾。\ \ 群益金鼎證的Baker Tu認為，白天鵝在美國出現的機率低，但歐洲的部分較難以預測。不過儘管歐債可能因利差關係帶動美債上彈，他認為台債最終仍要回歸美債為基礎，美債收益率大彈的機率並不高，或可令台債相對安全。\ \ 本次調查問卷訪問期間為6月26日至6月29日，受訪者共計31位，部分題目回答人數不足31人。參與調查的金融機構交易員包括元大證券、日盛證券、永豐金證券、康和證券及群益金鼎證券等5家金融機構，其他受訪者不願具名，因未被授權公開評論。受訪者不代表機構觀點。（撰文：Miaojung Lin）\ #台灣央行升息 #公債 #台債\